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La industria de alimentos balanceados es la que impulsará la demanda en los años por venir.
La reciente caída en los precios de los granos hace que el mercado se pregunte si esto representa un cambio completo permanente de la tendencia alcista en los precios que comenzó a mediados de la década pasada, según se señala en el último.
El informe OECD – FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014 – 2023 recientemente dado a conocer, comenta el Dr. Ken Shwedel, “de hecho proyecta el final de la tendencia alcista”.
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Sin embargo, continúa Shwedel, “ven esta reciente contracción en los precios de los granos gruesos como una fluctuación del precio a corto plazo. Esperan que hacia finales de la década habrá una corrección al alza modesta con una estabilización entre US$220 y US$230 por tonelada”.
Pero además, hay otros factores que le dan sustento a esta corrección al alza, que es la desaceleración proyectada en la tasa de crecimiento de la producción. “Por el lado del consumo de la ecuación, también proyectan una desaceleración en la tasa de crecimiento pues el crecimiento de la demanda del uso de los granos para biocombustibles ya llegó a su punto más alto, más o menos” señala Shwedel.
¿Cuál es el resultado de esto? Que será la demanda de la industria de alimentos balanceados la que impulse el mercado hacia la tercera década de este siglo. Shwedel termina diciendo: “Creemos que el punto importante al considerar los precios de los granos no es la caída en sí misma desde los puntos récord más altos en 2012, sino que son más del doble de los niveles de precios de principios de siglo”.